MSc

The research entitled “Economic impact of climate change and adaptation
strategies in black pepper (Piper nigrum L.) cultivation in Kerala” was conducted in
Wayanad and Idukki districts. The objective of the study was to quantify the impact
of climate change on black pepper, to understand the adaptation practices followed by
farmers to overcome climate change and to study the extent of governments’
compensation to farmers due to weather extremes. Secondary data regarding area
production, productivity and climatic variables were collected for Idukki and
Wayanad districts for the period 1987-2016.
Secondary data on compensation
provided by government due to weather extremes were collected only for Wayanad
district for the period 2005-2016 and primary data were confined to Wayanad district
for the agricultural year 2015-2016.
Panel data analysis was done to identify the climatic variables that are
influencing the production, binary logit regression was fitted to understand the
socioeconomic variables influencing adoption of adaptation practices, ABC cost
concepts were used to calculate the annual maintenance cost of pepper farmers, Cobb
Douglas production function was fitted to calculate the allocative efficiency of the
resources, Garrett ranking technique to determine the constraints faced by pepper
farmers and compound annual growth rate was calculated for the compensation given
by the government during weather extremes to know the growth trend.
From the panel data analysis, it was found that average temperature during Q3
(July – September) and Q4 (October – December) had a negative and significant
impact on the production of pepper.
A one percent increase in the average
temperature during Q3 will decrease the production by 3.41 per cent and a one
percent increase in the temperature during Q4 will decrease the production by 2.69
per cent. Rainfall during Q2 (April – June), which coincides with flowering of
pepper, was found to have positive effect on production but was statistically
insignificant.
Binary logit regression analysis was done to identify the socioeconomic
variables influencing adaptation practices followed by adopters. Number of year of
experience in pepper farming was found to be statistically significant which had
positive influence. From, the estimated partial elasticity, 1 per cent increase in year
of farming experience in pepper will increase the probability of adopting adaptation
practices by 0.99 per cent. Odds ratio obtained was 5.68 for year of experience in
pepper farming. It indicated that farmers with more number of years of experience
are likely to adopt adaptation practices five times higher than the farmers who have
less experience.
Cost A1 for the adopter farmers was `1,68,959.65 ha-1. Out of this, hired labour
accounted for 39.30 per cent, followed by manures, fertilizers and soil ameliorants
which was 21.13 per cent. Cost A2, Cost B and Cost C were `2,04,584.65 ha-1,
`2,51,241.35 ha-1, and `2,79,533.43 ha-1respectively. In non adopter farmers Cost A1
was `1,56,149.14 ha-1.
Out of this, hired labour accounted for 41.87 per cent,
followed by manures, fertilizer and soil ameliorants 22.14 per cent. Cost A2, Cost B
and Cost C were `1,93,649.14 ha-1, `2,42,160.42 ha-1, and `2,65,117.63 ha-
1
respectively. At Cost C, adopter farmers had 5.43 per cent more cost of cultivation
per hectare than non adopter farmers. Gross returns of adopters and non adopters was
`4,50,363.87 ha-1 and `3,10,953.04 ha-1 respectively.
B-C ratio at Cost C for
adopters was 1.61 and for non adopters it was 1.17.
The allocative efficiency, in adopter and non adopter farmers, family labour
was used sub optimally. Plant protection chemicals were underutilized and manures
and fertilizers were over utilized by adopters, whereas both plant protection
chemicals and manures and fertilizers were over utilized by non adopters.
Garrett ranking technique was used to rank the major constraints faced by the
farmers. Increase in high incidence of pest and disease and high labour cost were the
major production constraints faced by adopters and non adopters respectively.
Fluctuation in market prices was the major marketing constraint for both categories of
farmers. High cost of adaptation practices and lack of knowledge about adaptation
practices were major constraints for adaptation faced by adopters and non adopters
respectively.
Compensation to pepper farmers in Wayanad from government during drought
was an average `48,64,984 per annum and is growing at the rate of 1.04 per cent per
annum. Compensation for flooding due to heavy rainfall & high speed wind was an
average `1,32,81,192 per annum and is also growing at the rate of 1.04 per cent per
annum.
Q3 and Q4 temperature had negative impact on pepper production. Increase in
number of years of experience in farming increases the probability of adopting
adaptation practices. Net returns of adopters were more than that of non adopters.
Increase in labour cost, fluctuation in market prices and high cost of adaptation
practices were major constraints faced by both farmers.
Compensation by
government due to drought and heavy rainfall & high speed wind showed a positive
growth trend. A negative trend of rainfall was observed for both the districts. Hence
adaptation measures to conserve water such as rain water harvesting system,
mulching, spraying
1 per cent lime solution, moisture conservation tillage and
growing drought tolerant varieties (Paniyur-5, Paniyur-6 and Paniyur-7) helps to
reduce the risk of drought.