BSc-MSc (Integrated)

Much of rural India, has a majority of its livelihood directly dependent on
climate and are highly vulnerable to climate variability, with climatic changes having
profound direct and indirect impacts. Apart from the general climate-dependent nature
of the economy, the small size of land-holdings of most farmers in high elevations and
the large tribal population render the people and the livelihood of these areas highly
vulnerable to climate change and variability. Climate change is projected to affect
agricultural and natural ecosystems around the world, and there is no reason to expect
that agroforestry systems will be spared. This study was done to identify the impact of
climate change on agroforestry systems of high range landscapes of Kerala, in
particular Wayanad.
In this study we employ mixed methods, including remote sensing, semi-
structured interviews and statistical techniques to unravel the complex shift in
agroforestry systems occurring in Wayanad. The study was done with the compilation
of secondary literature on various agroforestry systems in the high range landscapes of
Kerala followed by the selection of intensive study area and a detailed socio-economic
survey among various stakeholders to understand the patterns, productions and
processes of various agroforestry systems in the landscape and climate variables. The
quantitative data such as area (in hectares) and production (in tonnes) of major crops
over the past two and half decades were obtained from the Agricultural Statistics
records of the Department of Economics and Statistics The in situ measured
temperature and rainfall data were collected from India Meteorological Department
and Regional Agricultural Research Station of the Kerala Agricultural University.
Ordinary least square regression equations were fitted in the temperature and rainfall
data to analyse the changes in trends. Monthly and annual changes were analyzed to
assess the seasonal and overall shifts in rainfall and temperature. Factor analysis based
on principal components was used to disentangle the impacts of various drivers in the
shifts the agricultural patterns, productions, and processes.
The results showed that Wayanad has underwent major changes in the land use
in the last two and half decades. Data from Economics and statistics department
showed that, the area and production of crops such as arecanut, coconut, rubber and
banana increased considerably whereas the area and production of rice, ginger and
pepper has declined over the last couple of decades.
Variables showed that monsoon rainfall across the district is found to be
decreasing over the years, while there is an increase in temperature during the same
period. Also, there is a delay in the onset of monsoon and an advance in the offset of
monsoon in Wayanad during 1991-2015. The factor analysis indicated four principal
components that drives the shifts in the agricultural practices. The first factor explained
25% of the variation, attributed to the market driven shift in agricultural practices . The
second principal component explained 18% of the variation driven by the adaptive
management strategies of the farmers to maximize the profits on context of absence of
labors and less investment and production cost for new crops. The third factor
contributed 15% in the overall shift in agricultural practices, and it was driven by the
changes in climate. The fourth component was responsible for a shift of 13% in the
agricultural practices driven by the expansion of tourism industry in recent times. The
study also indicated the out-migration of farmers since 1990s from Wayanad to nearby
regions where similar climatic conditions exists in search of better availability of land
and water resources, and less cost of cultivation among others.
The study conclude that there are changes in pattern, production and processes
of agroforestry systems of high range landscapes of Kerala, particularly in Wayanad,
and climate change contribute 15% of the shift in agricultural practices. The present
study contribute to our existing knowledge on the effect of climate change on crop
production and agricultural dynamics, and sheds light into the programs related to the
agro-forestry based climate change mitigation where climate variability and other
factors need to be accounted before making policy decisions that aimed to mitigate the
impact of climate change by means of agroforestry systems.