BSc-MSc (Integrated)

Global warming and climate change are terms for the observed century scale rise in the
average temperature of the earth’s climate system and its related effects. The climate change
prior to industrial revolution can be explained by natural phenomena. Anthropogenic climate
change has a significant role on physical and biological systems all over the globe. The
multiple components of climate change are anticipated to affect all the levels of biodiversity,
from organism to biome levels. Researches have been done in identifying the factors
affecting species distribution and analysing their current and future distribution pattern.
Species are affected in a different manner, many are forced to migrate at different rates
through fragmented landscapes. The migration of animals and birds is linked to climate
factors such as temperature, moisture availability and amount of daylight. These migrations
can be considered as a biological indicator of climate change as these species are expected to
track the shifting climate. Avian species are one of the best bioindicators and many migrating
birds are very sensitive to environmental changes and are already being affected by climate
change. Increasing temperatures, changing vegetation and extreme weather conditions lead to
significant changes of the birds’ essential habitats. The present study is a supporting element
for the above statements. The spatial and temporal distribution of selected migratory species
was studied in identifying the changing climate. Certain dry land inhabiting bird species such
as Bunting species (Black-headed Bunting), Lapwing species (Gray-headed Lapwing),
Wheatear species (Isabelline Wheatear), Bluethroat, Aquila species (Greater-spotted Eagle)
and Stonechat species (Common Stonechat) are selected for the study. Recently the Kerala
state has been witnessing the increased number in the arrival of certain migratory birds
usually inhabiting the drier tracts of warmer countries.It is hypothesised in the study that the
increased distribution of these birds could be an indication that the climate in Kerala is
changing. For analysing the species distribution, Maxent model was used. Using the current
bird data collected from e-bird database and the climate data acquired from the WorldClim
v1.4 database, the modelling for the present condition was done. Then utilising the current
distribution analysis, it would project the distribution of the bird species into the future by
converging it to the maximum entropy probability distribution.
The study revealed the current (1950-2015) and projected distribution pattern of the
selected migratory bird species for the years 2050 and 2070 under different RCP projections.
The current distribution pattern says that the presence of Black-headed Buntingis observed at
the northern and southern tips of Kerala, the Bluethroat at the central region, the Grey-headed
Lapwing and the Common Stonechat towards the central and southern portions, the Greaterspotted
Eagle at the central and southern regions and the Isabelline Wheatear towards the
southern regions. The projected modelling results reveal that the distribution of the selected
migratory bird species would be expanding more to the entire plains of the Kerala state
excepting majority of the high land regions. For the current and future distribution of the
given bird species the effect of temperature is more important comparing to precipitation
effects.