MSc

The impact of climate change is predicted to be more pronounced in developing countries like India as these economies mainly rely on climate sensitive sectors and the resources to manage are scarce. There exists wide variability in the socio economic conditions and geography across India and hence the impact of changes in climate varies across regions and locations. The study entitled “Climate change impacts and adaptation strategies in paddy production” in Kerala was undertaken with the objective of valuing the impact of climate change on paddy production and assessing the public cost of weather extremes .The study also explored farmer’s level of understanding on the concept of climate change and farm level adaptive mechanisms.
The study was based on both primary and secondary data. The two major rice growing tracts of Kerala, viz. Alappuzha (Kuttanad) and Thrissur (Kole) districts were selected as the study area. Multistage random sampling method was adopted for sample selection. A random sample of 35 each farmers were identified and time series data (1980-81 to 2007-08) on the cost of cultivation and returns from paddy cultivation was collected from the records maintained by them. Further, the primary data on adaptation strategies and awareness level were gathered through personal interview method using pretested interview schedule. Ricardian approach using the panel data was employed to analyse the impact of change in climate on the paddy production. Apart from this, averages, percentages, growth rates and coefficient of variation were also used in the analysis.
The area under paddy farming in Kerala has been exhibiting a declining trend for the past few years. During 1980-81 to 2007-08 the decline was to the tune of 3.06 per cent. The domestic production of paddy has never been able to meet the requirement and the gap is widening due to further falling trends ( -2.16 per cent per annum). Though the area and production trends were negative, the productivity trends showed a slightly positive sign with 0.94 per cent. There is wide variability in the performance of these indicators across the regions.
The poor performance of paddy cultivation in the state has, largely been attributed to social (labour shortage, scarcity) and economic (relative profitability) reasons. The Gross returns from paddy farming amounted to an average of Rs 35,462 for the state, with a BC ratio of 1.69. Farm business Income in Kuttand was only Rs.16,235 and that in Kole lands (average holding size 1.84 ha) was Rs.29,725. At state level, this amounted to Rs.14,482. This income was enough to meet the household consumption requirement for only 1.5 months in Kuttanad and 2.8 months in Kole areas. Further, the time series data on Gross Returns reflected an increasing trend in current prices, but a stagnant or decreasing trend at constant prices. Thus it could be seen that the economic indicators do not very much favour paddy farming.
The weather variables in Kerala has been changing in such a way that it caused the state to shift from wetness to dryness. Minimum temperature and rainfall recorded a negative growth rate over the years, with a compound annual growth rate of -0.03per cent and -0.09 per cent respectively and maximum temperature shows a positive growth rate of 0.02 per cent. There was very high variability in minimum temperature and rainfall in Kerala compared to maximum temperature. The pattern of changes shows distinct differences in magnitude and direction in each location.
The Ricardian Method of analysis have shown that maximum temperature and rainfall during the initial growth phase(first two months) of the crop in Kuttanad region as exerting significant positive impact on farm income while these variables during second phase cause a decline in income. In Kole lands, however, it was the reverse and temperature during the second phase of crop growth was found to have positive and significant impact, though not direct
The extreme events associated with climate change cause damage to property and life. The direct damage costs associated with the summer rain in 2008 amounted to Rs 4309.06 lakhs, of which 79.62 per cent was private and the rest i.e.20.38 per cent was the public cost. The total area equivalent affected was 32 per cent of total cropped area under paddy in Kuttanad during the season, amounting to 72 per cent of total paddy production in Alappuzha.
Farmers in these regions were following several alternate management options like, planting time adjustments, varietal selection, crop rotation, System of Rice intensification (SRI), integrated farming systems and protecting against potential risk through subscribing to crop insurance.
The farmers in general are aware of the climate change phenomenon, and majority state rising temperature as the most significant symptom of climate change. Increased outbreak of pests and diseases, changes in rainfall patterns, floods and sea level rise are also considered as symptoms of climate change by these farmers.
The study highlights the need for detailed research on the topic covering different ecosystems and suggests location specific weather based agroadvisory services. The study justifies the public sector investment towards mitigating and adaptation programmes. The need for educating and empowering the stakeholders and developing a disaster management system to manage climate extremes is also underlined. The weather based crop insurance scheme, presently not very popular may be further promoted. The study also highlights the need for income support programmes for paddy farmers, as an incentive to continue in farming ,in the context of rising food security concerns.