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Water stress is predicted as one of the most pronounced risk of climate change in countries
like India. Kerala is reported as moving from wetness to dryness. Management of risks of
climate change necessitates scientific estimates of the level of potential damage,
accommodating for the vulnerability and adaptive mechanisms of the communities. The study
entitled ‘Socio-Economic Vulnerability and Adaptive Strategies to Environmental Risk: A
Case Study of Water Scarcity in Agriculture’ was undertaken with the objectives of
measuring farmers’ vulnerability to water stress in agriculture and its impact on household
welfare and to identify and assess the relative influence of various factors on the level of
vulnerability. Further, short term and long term adaptive strategies to water stress among
farmers of different socioeconomic conditions were also analysed.
The most backward district of the state of Kerala, Wayanad was selected as the study area.
Multistage random sampling method was adopted for sample selection. Nine panchayats from
four Community Development Blocks were selected, from each of which, 15 farmers were
selected. Thus the total sample size was 135. Primary data regarding the socio-economic
status, land use pattern and production, sources of water for domestic use and irrigation,
perceptions and adaptive strategies to water scarcity were gathered using pretested interview
schedule. Indicator based approach was used for constructing the composite vulnerability
index to assess the vulnerability level of the farmers. Logit model was employed to identify
the factors influencing vulnerability. Apart from these, conventional tabular analysis was also
used.
The cropping pattern in Wayanad shows a clear shift in favour of commercial crops like
arecanut, banana and rubber. The conversion of paddy lands for these crops was to the tune of
41 per cent during the last decade. The area under pepper shows a decline (54 %) and that of
other commercial crops show an increase. Among other reasons, climate change is perceived
as one of the major reasons for this decision by the farmers. The analysis of weather
parameters and climate predictions for Wayanad also supports the farmer level observation.
The rainfall and temperature pattern of the district during past years indicate an increasing
level of water stress. Climate change models project very high variation in the rainfall pattern
of the district in future years. An increase in the average annual rainfall coupled with lower
levels of summer showers are predicted. By 2020, summer showers may decline to 43.6 mm
as against the present, 70 mm. High intensity rains with low duration will be the major
characteristic. A gradual increase in annual temperature by about 1.5ºC is also predicted.
In this background, a composite vulnerability index considering social, economical and
agronomic factors of the farmers was constructed to measure the vulnerability. More than 50
per cent of farmers were highly vulnerable and the proportion of the farmers in that group
was found to be increasing during the past five years. An inverse relationship was observed
between the land holding size and vulnerability level, three- fourth of the marginal farmers
were vulnerable while most of the small and large farmers (41.27 % and 34.78 %
respectively) belonged to the other group. Thavinjal panchayat of Manathavady block was
found to be the most vulnerable and Muppainad and Vythiri panchayats of Kalpetta block
were found to be the least vulnerable.
The results of the logit model shows that five out of eight factors viz. diversity index,
cropping intensity, percentage of irrigated area to total cropped area, net cropped area and
education as having significant influence on the probability of an agricultural household
being vulnerable, of which the diversity index and cropping diversity are the most influential
factors.
Farmers often have their own adaptive mechanism to cope with the water stress condition
within the constraints. In general, adaptation strategies followed in domestic and agricultural
sector can be classified into supply management strategies and demand regulating strategies
or long term and short term strategies. The supply management programme includes those
activities which ensure the steady supply of water and the demand side management mainly
focus on more efficient use of available water resources and improving water resources.
Among the respondents, a gradual shift from the dependence on external sources of water to
owned sources has occurred. The dependence on external sources increases the time spent
and drudgery of women folk in such households.
Common adaptation strategies followed by the farmers include irrigation, varietal selection,
mixed cropping, crop diversification, organic farming, soil and water conservation measures
(mulching, earthen bunds and rain pits) and migration (geographical and sectoral). About 39
percent of the sample respondents were adopting irrigated farming and the average
expenditure was found to be Rs 18187 per household which is nearly nine percent of the total
household income. Only a few farmers were adopting micro-irrigation methods because of its
high investment. This cost of adaptation, further reduces their consumption expenditure
leading to household welfare loss.
The study suggests research interventions in developing a sustainable cropping pattern and
scientific validation with location specific studies on the impact of climate change on major
crops. The need for empowering the farmers through technology, infrastructure, financial and
extension support to adapt to water stress is also underlined. It highlights the importance of
water resource development and the need for identifying the constraints in the adoption and
develop/modify the technologies to suit local conditions. Further the implementation of
weather based crop insurance programmes with localised meteorological stations as reference
points is also stressed.