MSc

The research entitled “Comparison of performance and its determinants of coffee and cardamom in South India: A statistical analysis” was conducted with the objective of comparative analysis on area, production, productivity and price of plantation crops such as coffee and cardamom across the states Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, to develop statistical models for price volatility and to determine the factors responsible for performance. This research work was based on secondary data on area, production, productivity, price of different grades of coffee (Arabica plantation A, Arabica cherry AB, Robusta parchment ‘AB” and Robusta cherry AB) and price of cardamom in South India for a period from 1993 to 2017, collected from Coffee Board and Spice Board, GOI. Secondary data pertaining to weather parameters such as rainfall, temperature and relative humidity (RH) were collected for Wayanad district from Regional Agricultural Research Station (RARS), Ambalavayil, KAU and for Idukki district from Cardamom Research Station (CRS), Pampadumpara, KAU.
Different linear and nonlinear growth models were estimated to understand the trends in area, production and productivity and the best model was selected based on adj. R2, criteria of randomness and normality. Cubic model was found to be the best fitted model for area in Kerala, area and production in Karnataka and quadratic model for area, production and productivity in Tamil Nadu, production and productivity in Kerala for coffee. Exponential model was found to be the best model for productivity of coffee in Karnataka. In case of cardamom, cubic model was found to be the best model for area, production and productivity in Kerala, production and productivity in Karnataka, area and production in Tamil Nadu and quadratic model for area in Karnataka, productivity in Tamil Nadu.
Comparative analysis on area, production and productivity of coffee and cardamom in Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu was done by estimating the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) using exponential model . The estimated CAGR of area (0.2%), production (1.7%) and productivity (1.6%) of coffee in Kerala, area (1.8%), production (2.1%) and productivity (0.8%) in Karnataka and area in Tamil Nadu (0.3%) was found to be positive and significant. In case of cardamom, significant negative CAGR was noticed in area (0.4%) whereas; significant positive high CAGR was noticed for production (6.0%) and productivity (6.5%) in Kerala. Same pattern of growth rate was noticed in Tamil Nadu. Moreover, negative significant CAGR in area (1.0%) and positive significant CAGR in productivity (1.5%) were recorded for cardamom in Karnataka.
Stationarity of all the price series of different grades of coffee (Arabica Plantation A and Robusta Cherry AB) and cardamom were tested using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test and the results of the analysis suggested that all the price series were stationary after first difference and integrated of order one I (1). Engle-Granger co-integration technique was used to understand market integration or co-movement of prices in Bengaluru and Chennai markets for two grades of coffee and integration between cardamom auction prices in Kerala and Karnataka markets. The results of the cointegration analysis revealed that coffee prices in Bengaluru and Chennai markets for both grades were cointegrated and also cardamom auction prices in Kerala and Karnataka markets were cointegrated. These results indicated that prices in these markets were moving in a synchronized manner.
ARCH-GARCH modeling was carried out to estimate the volatility of price of coffee in Karnataka and price of cardamom in Kerala and Karnataka based on auction prices of different grades of coffee and small cardamom. The presence of ARCH effect was tested using ARCH-LM test and the results emphasizes the need of ARCH-GARCH model. The estimated values of the parameters of GARCH model suggested that volatility was more in Arabica plantation A ( =0.9836) as compared to Arabica cherry AB
( = 0.74129) and Robusta parchment AB ( = 0.56386). Auction price of cardamom in Karnataka had more volatility ( =0.9265) as compared to auction price in Kerala ( =0.7504). Moreover, volatility was noticed and high in domestic price of different grades of coffee and cardamom.
Multiple linear regressions were carried out to identify the factors responsible for production of coffee in Kerala by using weather parameters and price. Average RH during February-April (Q1) and one year lag price (Pt-1) had significant positive influence and rainfall during May- July (Q2) had significant negative influence on coffee production in Kerala. But in the case of cardamom, temperature during April-June (Q2), July-September (Q3) and rainfall during April-June (Q2) had significant negative influence on production.
Quadratic and cubic models were found to be the best model for trends in area, production and productivity of coffee and cardamom. Coffee had positive growth rates in area, production and productivity; however cardamom exhibited negative growth rates in area and positive growth rates in production and productivity across three states. Even though, there was a decline in area under cardamom, increasing trend in production was noticed. The remarkable achievement in the production of cardamom was due to positive growth and high productivity per hectare. The results of cointegration analysis suggest that, any change in price on account of internal or external shocks to the economy in one market would have transmitted immediately to the other markets. Price of different grades of coffee in Kerala and Tamil Nadu and auction price of cardamom in Kerala and Karnataka were cointegrated. Volatility was present and persistent in auction price of coffee in Karnataka, cardamom in Kerala and Karnataka. Persistence of volatility in the auction price of coffee and cardamom would adversely affect the income and livelihood security of the farmers