Price behaviour of natural rubber in India.

Abstract

Natural rubber, a product of vital commercial importance is recovered from the latex of the rubber tree, Hevea braziliensis. The present study entitled “Price behaviour of natural rubber in India” was conducted during 2010-11 based on the secondary data. The changes in area, production and productivity status of natural rubber in the world, India and Kerala were studied using the index numbers and compound growth rates. The compound growth rates in area, production and productivity of natural rubber in India were below the global growth rates, while that of Kerala was above the national level. India is emerging as the second largest consumer of natural rubber in the world. Consumption status of natural rubber in India showed that there is a growing deficit between domestic production and consumption of natural rubber in India. India was not a regular exporter of natural rubber, and therefore considerable fluctuations were observed in the export status depending on the domestic production level. The deficit in demand was met by imports. The import of natural rubber by Indian automobile industries grew annually by 12.37 per cent during the study period. The secular, seasonal, cyclical and irregular variations in rubber prices were studied using the techniques of classical decomposition of time series analysis. The trend in rubber prices in the domestic market at Kottayam and international market at Bangkok were captured by the single exponential smoothing model satisfactorily. The analysis showed that the RSS-4 prices in the Bangkok as well as the Kottayam markets were stagnant from January 1995 to April 2001, after which the prices showed an upward trend. The rubber prices were subjected to considerable seasonal variations due to the seasonality in production. In the international market, the peak price was observed in June and the trough price during the month of July, whereas in Kottayam market, the peak price was observed during May and the lowest price in the month of February. The rubber prices in the international as well as domestic markets were not subjected to pronounced price cycles. There were considerable irregular variations in rubber prices in both the markets. The rubber prices exhibited considerable instability in both the markets. Out of the different price forecasting models used to develop a reliable price forecasting model, the artificial neural network (ANN) model was found to be more reliable for predicting the price of RSS-4 in Kottayam market. However, no model could capture the underlying dynamics of rubber prices in the international market at Bangkok satisfactorily. The export competitiveness of Indian natural rubber was measured using nominal protection coefficient (NPC) under exportable hypothesis. It was found that Indian natural rubber was not export competitive during the study period. The market integration studies showed that Kottayam and Bangkok markets were integrated and there was a unidirectional influence of Bangkok market on the prices of natural rubber in Kottayam market, while the influence of Kottayam market on Bangkok market could not be established. The policy interventions suggested based on the study include efforts to increase the area under natural rubber in the non traditional rubber growing areas like North Eastern states, evolving technologies for enhancing the productivity of natural rubber in India to increase the income of farmers per unit cultivated area, improved tapping techniques to extend the tapping days, and to develop a multivariate price forecasting model. A reliable, regional market intelligence system for the natural rubber growers in the country to provide timely and reliable market information and intelligence is also suggested.