Land use dynamics in kerala- a multidimensional analysis

Abstract

Land is a vital input among all the production resources. Land use change is a phenomenon highlighting significant changes in human interactions with the natural environment. Kerala has witnessed significant changes in its land utilization pattern in favour of non-agricultural sector and a structural transformation in agriculture from food crop to cash crop cultivation. Therefore an analysis of the dynamics of land use and cropping pattern changes over a while provides scope for planned and judicious management of land and its resources. This study was taken up with the specific objectives viz., to assess the temporal variations of land use classes in Kerala, analyse the cropping pattern changes in the agro-ecological zones of Kerala, examine the effect of transitions in land use pattern on cropping intensity and assess the ecological significance of land use dynamics in the state. The objectives were examined using both primary and secondary data. The secondary data were compiled from various issues of Economic Review, Agricultural Statistics and Statistics for Planning (GoK). The time series data for the period from 1985-86 to 2019-20 were used to analyse the objectives of this study. The GSVA agriculture at constant prices was subjected to Bai and Perron (1998) methodology to estimate multiple break points and six phases of growth were obtained. These periods were Period I (1985-89), Period II (1990-94), Period III (1995-2003), Period IV (2004-2009), Period V (2010-2014) and Period VI (2015-2019). The cropping pattern changes in the five agro-ecological zones of Kerala were analysed using primary data pertaining to the year 2020-21 and the samples were identified based on multistage sampling method. The data were obtained from 48 respondents each from Champakulam block (Coastal Plain), Perumpadappu block (Midland Laterites), Kothamangalam block (Foothills), Nedumkandam block (High Hills) and Chittur block (Palakkad Plain) constituting a total sample size of 240. The data were collected through personal interview method employing a structured and pretested interview schedule. The Compound Annual Growth Rate and Cuddy-Della Valle instability index were used to analyse the growth performance and instability of land use classes and various crops. In the overall period (1985-2019), the cultivable wasteland (0.04%), land put to non-agricultural uses (1.49%), current fallow (1.67%) and other fallow (2.79%) exhibited positive annual growth rates. The rest of the land use categories showed declining growth rates and it was noted to be highest for land under miscellaneous tree crops (-10.2%). Instability was observed to be high for permanent pastures and area under miscellaneous tree crops. The results of the growth performance of the crops in the area, production and productivity for the overall period revealed that paddy, pulses, tapioca, pepper, ginger and tea experienced declining annual growth rate in area, production and positive growth rate in productivity. Among all the crops, cashew experienced declining annual growth rate in area, production and productivity. Banana witnessed the largest annual increase in area (4.36%) followed by arecanut (1.87%), rubber (1.27%) and other plantain (1.04%). The non-food crops such as rubber, cocoa and coffee were found to have positive annual growth rate in the area, production and productivity. The structural variation among the land use classes and crops assessed using Markov chain analysis revealed that the net area sown was the most stable land use category in the first, second and third phases with retention probabilities of 83.2 per cent, 97.9 per cent and 85.5 per cent respectively. In the fourth and fifth phases, the land under miscellaneous tree crops and barren and uncultivable land had the highest retention probabilities of 94.1 per cent and 56.1 per cent. In the sixth phase, the land put to non-agricultural uses showed a 73.2 per cent probability of holding to its share, indicating that it was the most stable land use category. As regards crops, cashew, coconut, tapioca, rubber, banana and tea were observed to be the most stable crops in the first, second, third, fourth, fifth and sixth phases respectively. The crop diversification in various districts of Kerala were estimated using the Herfindahl Index (HI), Entropy Index (EI) and Simpson’s Diversity Index (SDI). Idukki registered lowest HI (0.13) and highest values of EI (1.06) and SDI (0.87) indicating that the cropping pattern was highly diversified in the district. Kozhikode registered the highest HI (0.36), lowest values of EI (0.73) and SDI (0.64) denoting relatively higher specialization of crops. Monocropping of paddy was the major cropping pattern observed in the Coastal Plain, Midland Laterites and Palakkad Plain agro-ecological zones. In Foothills agro-ecological zone, monocropping of rubber and intercropping of coconut + banana were prominent, whereas in High Hills, it was monocropping of cardamom, pepper, rubber and intercropping of cardamom + pepper. The constraints faced by the farmers analysed using the Garrett ranking technique revealed that the unavailability of labour, climate variability, increase in the labour wage rates, high cost of inputs, attack from animals and birds, fluctuation in market prices, lack of irrigation facilities, unavailability of inputs and inadequate marketing facilities were the major constraints faced by the respondents. The factors influencing cropping intensity and the effect of transitions in land use pattern on cropping intensity were analysed using multiple regression of linearlogarithmic form. The factors viz., gross irrigated area, weighted price of fertilisers, population density and area not available for cultivation favourably contributed to the increase in cropping intensity. The increase in the land put to non-agricultural uses, barren and uncultivable land, land under miscellaneous tree crops and net area sown positively impacted the cropping intensity of Kerala. Inter-sectoral budgeting analysis was used to assess the ecological significance of land use dynamics in Kerala. The results of the analysis unveiled that in the first phase, the land shifts occurred from the undesirable ecological sector to agricultural and non-agricultural sectors. The agricultural and non-agricultural sectors increased annually by 6053 ha and 1575 ha. In the second, third and fourth phases, the land shifts took place from both the ecological and agricultural sectors. A considerable decline in the net area sown contributed to the decline of the agricultural sector in the fourth phase. In the fifth and sixth phases, land shifts occurred from the ecological and agricultural sectors to the non-agricultural sector. The decline in area under the ecological sector was high in the initial phases, whereas the decline under the agricultural sector was prominent in the later phases. Spatial planning with remote sensing and GIS and validation with field survey may be prioritised for clear demarcation of arable and non-agricultural land in order to check the declining trend of arable land and increasing trend of non-agricultural area. The cropping pattern in favour of cash crops is an indicator of food insecurity. Therefore, more focus may be given in providing various incentives to the farmers cultivating food crops. The supply of inputs at subsidised rates, especially seeds and seedlings through krishibhavan and assured marketing facilities at every panchayat/ block level, should be prioritised.