Abstract:
The sequential one day dryspells at Kasaragod during weekly and monthly
periods have been analysed by fitting a first order Markov chain probability model
to the daily rainfall data in relation to potential evapotranspiration at the place. The
parameters and properties of the model, dry sequence length corresponding to a
return period and probabilities of dry and wet days in different crop phases are
presented and disussed. The mode! is useful for prediction of dry day sequences
of various length at the place during rainfall transition periods of April, May,
October and November.
