Abstract:
A first order Markov Chain model was applied to daily rainfall data of five
selected reporting stations of northern Kerala with a view to characterize the rainfall
p-.ttern in that tract. It was found that the mod^l was adequate in representing the
rainfall pattern in almost all fortnights except a few at the beginning and at the end
of the year. The equilibrium probability of occurrence of wet day showed increasing
trend iall centres upto 12th, 13th or 14th fortnights and then decreased. The results
indicated that the likely commencement af south-west monsoon was in ui>> 11th
fortnight (June 1 to 15). Suitable probability distributions were fitted to estimate
the rainfall probabilities. It was found that there was slightly higher chance at Irikkur
and Mananthody to get sufficiently high rainfall during earlier fortnights (8th and 9th).
