Browsing by Author "Lekshmi, M S"

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    Future projections of Indian summer monsoon rainfall in CMIP6
    (College of Climate Change and Environmental Science, Vellanikkara, 2022-11-30) Lekshmi, M S; Roxy Mathew Koll
    The state-of-the-art climate model simulations of the Indian monsoon must be examined since future climate policy choices rely on accurate monsoon projections. This study examines the fidelity of 22 CMIP6 models in simulating the Indian summer monsoon from 1950 to 2014. The models are rated based on how well they reproduce seasonal mean precipitation and monsoon circulation characteristics. The multimodel mean of the better models reported in this study is expected to give more reliable Indian monsoon estimates. The Indian summer monsoon's near-term, mid-term, and long-term variations have been studied under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. According to the findings, future changes in Indian monsoon rainfall are closely tied to changes in low level monsoon winds. Under a global warming scenario, the low level monsoon wind over the North Arabian Sea (north of 15°N) is expected to strengthen, whereas the low level monsoon wind over the South Arabian Sea (south of 15°N) is expected to weaken. This pattern is caused by a poleward shift in the low-level monsoon. This poleward shift causes changes in precipitation over land and ocean. Long-term strengthening of the North Arabian Sea wind speed would result in enhanced rainfall over central India as well as the sinking of air (reduced rainfall) south of the equator, completing the cycle. The quantity of rainfall that may fall on the southern peninsula as a result of global warming, however, will be limited by a decrease in the South Arabian Sea wind speed. Weak winds (south of 15°N) will hinder the moisture buildup caused by the warming of the West Indian Ocean from reaching the subcontinent; rather, it will rise above the ocean, causing an increase in rainfall over the Arabian Sea. Keywords: CMIP6, Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall, Monsoon Circulation, Climate Projections