Characterization of the pattern of rainfall in northern Kerala

Abstract

A first order Markov Chain model was applied to daily rainfall data of five selected reporting stations of northern Kerala with a view to characterize the rainfall p-.ttern in that tract. It was found that the mod^l was adequate in representing the rainfall pattern in almost all fortnights except a few at the beginning and at the end of the year. The equilibrium probability of occurrence of wet day showed increasing trend iall centres upto 12th, 13th or 14th fortnights and then decreased. The results indicated that the likely commencement af south-west monsoon was in ui>> 11th fortnight (June 1 to 15). Suitable probability distributions were fitted to estimate the rainfall probabilities. It was found that there was slightly higher chance at Irikkur and Mananthody to get sufficiently high rainfall during earlier fortnights (8th and 9th).