Study of dryspells at Kasaragod by first order markov chain probability model

Abstract

The sequential one day dryspells at Kasaragod during weekly and monthly periods have been analysed by fitting a first order Markov chain probability model to the daily rainfall data in relation to potential evapotranspiration at the place. The parameters and properties of the model, dry sequence length corresponding to a return period and probabilities of dry and wet days in different crop phases are presented and disussed. The mode! is useful for prediction of dry day sequences of various length at the place during rainfall transition periods of April, May, October and November.