1. KAUTIR (Kerala Agricultural University Theses Information and Retrieval)
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Item Economic analysis of production, marketing and price behavior of tapioca(Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara, 2018) Athira, E; Jesy Thomas, KTapioca (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is a staple food crop cultivated in several developing countreis around the globe. Among the tropical root and tuber crops, tapioca stands first in terms of area and production. India is the tenth largest producer of tapioca with production of 8.10 million tonnes from an area of 2.17 lakh hectares. India acquires its significance in global tapioca economy due to highest productivity in the world (36.4 t/ha). Among Indian states Kerala stands second in production of tapioca. The area under tapioca was showing a declining trend from the eighties which has resulted in stagnant production. In the above background, the present study was carried out with the objective of analysing the trend in area, production and productivity and price behaviour of tapioca, estimating the economics and resource use efficiency of tapioca production, identifying the marketing channels, estimating marketing costs, margins and marketing efficiency and finding out the major constraints in production and marketing of tapioca in Kerala. The study is based on both primary and secondary data. The time series data on area, production and productivity of tapioca in Kerala and India for a period of 1950-51 to 2016-17 were collected to study the trend and growth rate. Monthly average prices of tapioca in various markets of Kerala were collected to evaluate the trend and price behaviour of tapioca over the period 2002 to 2018. Primary data was collected form 120 selected farmers of Kollam district and Malappuram district using pretested interview schedule by personal interview method. Trend analysis was done to understand the growth pattern of tapioca in terms of area, production and productivity both at national and state level from 1950-51 to 2016-17. In India production and productivity of tapioca showed an increasing trend but the area was showing a declining trend. In the case of Kerala, similar trend was observed with negative growth in area for the entire period of study, but the growth for the entire period of study, but the growth rate in production was positive due to high and positive growth rate in productivity. The price behavior of tapioca in major markets of Kerala viz., Kozhikode, Ernakulam and Chalai were analyzed by decomposing the monthly price data into four components viz., secular trend, seasonal variation, cyclical variation and irregular variation assuming a multiplicative model of time series. The price of tapioca in these markets showed an increasing trend in the long run. While analyzing the seasonal variation it was noticed that during the entire study period (2002 to 2018), price of tapioca showed wide fluctuations in all the three markets. Due to high fluctuations in price no definite cycles were seen in the market prices. Co-integration analysis of tapioca prices in the above three markets were carried out and it was revealed all the three markets were integrated. In order to provide additional evidence on the direction of price transmission, Granger causality test was carried out and the results proved the existence of causality between Kozhikode and Ernakulam markets in the long run in both the directions. Unidirectional causality was found between Kozhikode and Chalai markets and Ernakulam and Chalai markets. The cost and returns were estimated using ABC cost concepts. The cost of cultivation per hectare was Rs.1, 54,619 with a net return of Rs. 43,190. It was noted that human labour accounted for 48.50 per cent of the total cost. To evaluate resource use efficiency in tapioca cultivation, Cobb-Douglas production function was fitted. Human labour and experience in farming were found to be significantly and experience in tapioca cultivation, Cobb-Douglas production function was fitted. Human labour and experience in farming were found to be significantly contributing towards the yield. Moreover, an increasing returns to scale in tapioca production was observed in the study area which implies that there is ample scope to increase the profit of farmers by proper adoption of technology and by optimal allocation of resources. Marketing plays a predominant role in agricultural development and is as important as production to any producer. Thus, an efficient marketing system can increase the level of income of producers and raise the satisfaction of cosumers. The most common marketing channel identified in the study area was channel I (Producer-village trader-wholesaler-retailer-consumer) with a marketing efficiency of 2.0, while channel IV (Producer-consumer) was found to be the most efficient channel (6.45) as there were no intermediaries. Major production constraints identified were high labour cost and labour shortage and the marketing constraints were low price and distress sale to traders. The future of tapioca lies in the promotion of diversified uses of tapioca, especially in the industrial sector so policy intervention to encourage potential entrepreneurs to start industries to produce diverse value added products from tapioca is needed to tackle these problems.Item Price behaviour of turmeric in India(Department of Agricultural Economics, College of Horticulture, Vellanikkara, 2011) Jyothi, T; Jesy Thomas, KThe present study on the "Price behaviour of turmeric in India" was undertaken with the specific objective of investigating the secular trend, seasonality, cyclical and irregular movements in the price of turmeric in India and to evolve a reliable price forecasting model for turmeric.' The study was conducted during the year 2010-11 with reference to three major markets in the country viz., Kochi, Nizamabad and Erode markets employing secondary data. With reference to CGR of area, production and productivity of turmeric at All- India level, compared to pre- WTO regime, the rate of growth in area and productivity of turmeric showed declining trend during post- WTO regime and hence, growth rate in production also showed declining trend. Both in Kerala and Andhra Pradesh, the crop has not received due attention during post- WTO regime compared to pre- WTO regime, as indicated by the declining trends in terms of area, production and productivity. However, in Tamil Nadu, the crop witnessed insignificant growth rates in terms of area, production and productivity of turmeric during both pre- WTO and post- WTO regimes. Despite slow growth in production of turmeric in the era of liberalized regime, India enjoyed favourable net trade position, as indicated by the significant positive growth rates in the exports of turmeric in terms of quantity, value and unit price compared to import scenario. Further, the instability in exports of turmeric declined during post- WTO regime compared to pre- WTO regime, as indicated by the fall in CV. However, there is much scope to increase the export prospects ofturmeric, as even today, India's export basket comprises of fresh produce only rather than processed products. This favourable net trade position is further confirmed by the low NPCsindicating that, India enjoys more export competitiveness for turmeric in the international market. Regarding price behaviour, the analysis based on single exponential method revealed that, in Kochi and Erode markets, turmeric prices showed greater degree of fluctuations up to September 2007 and the period beyond October, 2007 represents growth phase in turmeric prices. For turmeric (bulb) and turmeric (finger) in Nizamabad market, prices have not shown a specific trend, implying a greater degree of price volatality for these commodities. Market integration study was conducted considering the spot prices of turmeric at the selected markets by employing the Johansen multiple eo integration analysis. The two eo-integration equations were found to be significant at five per cent level, indicating that, the selected markets are having long run equilibrium relationship. Seasonal indices of turmeric prices computed through employing ratio to moving average method revealed that, the domestic prices of turmeric exhibited considerable seasonality in all the selected markets. The seasonal price behaviour further inferred that, it was almost similar among Kochi and Erode markets because of their proximity, while it was totally different for the Nizarnabad market, as it is distantly separated compared to the earlier two markets. Cyclical variations in turmeric prices are more pronounced in all the selected markets. In Kochi market, the length of the cycle lasted for about six years, seven years for turmeric bulb and finger prices in Nizamabad market and six to seven years in Erode market. Turmeric prices were subjected to considerable irregular variations and these are due to supply shocks on account of climatic variations or market shocks on account of demand shocks or high speculative factors. Different pnce forecasting methods were employed VlZ., double exponential smoothing (Nizamabad and Erode markets) and Winters' multiplicative method and Winters' additive method (Ko chi market) for price forecasting of turmeric during the months of March, April and May, 2011 and the findings revealed that, the modal prices of three months fall in the range of forecasted prices across all the markets indicating that, the price forecasts were reliable. The accuracy percentage of turmeric price forecast ranges from 90 to 99 per cent. The prices so forecasted across the markets are validated for the same period and the findings revealed that, the monthly modal prices of selected commodity fall within the range of predicted prices. The accuracy percentage of price forecast is above 90 for the reference commodity and this implies that the forecast is reliable in all the selected markets. Considering the above findings with reference to production and trading scenarios of turmeric, it is essential to formulate multi-pronged strategy such as strengthening R&D to develop and release HYV of turmeric and fine tune the crop production strategies with reference to different agro-ecological situations, strengthening processing, storage and market information network, effective implementation of Market Intervention Scheme, improving the acces:; of farmers towards futures markets to overcome price risk, quality enhancement of turmeric on the lines of SPS standards fixed by the importing countries, price forecasting to regulate area and production of turmeric in tune of its export prospects etc., so as to enhance both domestic and export competitiveness and to gain due share in the international market.