Carbon stocks of Indian forests in the face of climate change

Abstract

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, primarily carbon dioxide, pose a global challenge, driving climate change and extreme weather events. Forests, a key player in the global carbon cycle, mitigate these effects by storing and exchanging carbon through photosynthesis. Yet, disturbances and climate events can turn forests into carbon sources. So, understanding forests carbon stocks, and their fluctuations along with changing climate is vital. India a megadiverse country and ranked as third largest global emitter, has a commitment to achieving carbon-neutral growth and to set ambitious climate targets, so this study focuses on estimating carbon stocks within India's diverse forest ecosystems. For that analysed the historical and future trends of forests carbon stock along with climatic parameters using remotely sensed satellite datasets while the simulated and projected changes for the period; historical (1960-2020), near term(2021 2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and for long-term(2081-2100) using a dynamic vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS), along with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project's Phase 6 activity, the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP), offers multi-model climate projections based on several future emission and land use change scenarios. Results indicate an overall rise in carbon stock across India's forests, with notable vulnerability in the north, northeast, and southwest regions, which lead to low carbon stock in these areas. Future projections suggest that under higher emission scenario a substantial increase (60-90%) in carbon stock in central India's tropical forests, contrasting with lower increases (50-70%) in the Himalayan and northeastern regions, influenced by temperature and precipitation variations. Regions with increased carbon stocks correlate with lower temperatures and higher precipitation, while regions with lower stocks experience higher temperatures and precipitation. In navigating the complex interplay between forests and climate change, this research contributes valuable insights for guiding future climate action and fostering global environmental sustainability. Keywords: LPJ-GUESS, Carbon Stock Modelling, Indian Forests, Climate Change, CMIP-6 Projection.