Causes and consequences of declining rice cultivation in Kerala: a micro-macro analysis

Abstract

Agriculture has historically been the backbone of Kerala’s economy, with rice holding a special place as a staple food and a cultural symbol. The state’s distinct geographical features, including fertile river basins and abundant monsoons, have made it ideal for rice cultivation. However, over the decades, Kerala has witnessed a steady decline in the area under rice cultivation, raising concerns about food security, ecological sustainability, and farmers' livelihoods. This research, titled "Causes and Consequences of Decline in Rice Cultivation in Kerala: A Micro-Macro Analysis", delves into the underlying factors driving this decline, the socioeconomic and environmental challenges faced by farmers, and the effectiveness of government interventions aimed at sustaining rice cultivation. Understanding the factors driving this shift is crucial for shaping the future of agriculture in the state. The study was based on both primary and secondary data. Primary data were collected through personal interviews of 200 rice farmers in three major rice producing districts of Kerala: Palakkad, Alappuzha, and Thrissur. Four blocks were purposively selected from each district, and two panchayats were chosen randomly from each block. The selected blocks were Malampuzha, Palakkad, Kuzhalmannam and Alathur from Palakkad district; Pazhayanoor, Chowannur, Anthikad, and Wadakkanchery from Thrissur district and Veliyanad, Champakkulam, Ambalapuzha and Haripad blocks from Alappuzha district. Secondary data from 1957-58 to 2022 23 were also sourced from government publications. The structural break analysis provided the basis for dividing the study period into four sub-periods: Period I (1957-58 to 1986-87), Period II (1987-88 to 1996-97), Period III (1997-98 to 2006-07), and Period IV (2007-08 to 2022-23). This division allowed for a detailed examination of the trends and shifts in rice cultivation across different phases. The time series data analysis revealed that the decline in rice cultivation in Kerala has been steady but varied across periods and the period-wise analysis showed distinct trends over time. During the first period (1957-58 to 1986 87), rice cultivation peaked but began to decline, but the productivity improvements helped to sustain production. In the second period, cultivated areas were driven by shifts to cash crops like rubber and coconut. The third period marked the steepest decline, reflecting the continued shift towards other crops and increasing urbanisation and economic pressures. However, the final period saw a moderate decline due to interventions like the Kerala Conservation of Paddy Land and Wetland Act of 2008, which, along with technological advancements, helped stabilise production despite continued reduction in area. Macro-level factors influencing the decline in rice cultivation were analysed using panel data regression and Markov chain analysis. The key drivers included the shift towards competing crops, rising costs of cultivation, escalating labour charges, and the conversion of rice fields for non-agricultural purposes. These trends highlighted the growing influence of real estate business and urbanisation, which elevated land as a lucrative asset, further accelerating the shift from rice cultivation. Micro-level factors, analysed through binary logistic and probit regression models and correspondence analysis, revealed critical drivers behind farmers' decisions to continue or abandon rice cultivation. Total land ownership, adequate water availability, higher yields, and governmental support positively influenced farmers, encouraging them to sustain rice farming. Conversely, higher land value of garden land, escalating labour costs, labour scarcity, perceived profitability of competing crops, and the impact of abnormal weather patterns and natural calamities were associated with a higher likelihood for conversion of rice fields. These adverse factors significantly contributed to the decline in rice cultivation. Social Network Analysis (SNA) was utilised for identifying the key influencers shaping rice cultivation decisions in Kerala. The analysis highlighted the significant impact of both formal and informal networks on rice farmers. Major influencers identified through SNA included Padashekara samitis, Krishi Bhavans, and local family networks, all showing high levels of influence in guiding farming decisions. In Palakkad, Padashekara samitis and Krishi Bhavans emerged as the strongest influences, while in Alappuzha, the role of pump suppliers, due to the region's water management challenges, was particularly prominent. These networks, through their varying degrees of authority, are key players in shaping rice cultivation practices, underlining the importance of understanding local connections and their influence on effective policy interventions. Governmental interventions have played a crucial role in sustaining rice cultivation in Kerala. Key interventions such as the Kerala Conservation of Paddy Land and Wetland Act (KCPWA) of 2008, state procurement programmes, and the State Incentive Bonus (SIB) have been pivotal in supporting farmers. The KCPWA protected rice-growing areas from being converted into non-agricultural uses, while the state procurement program, through Supplyco, ensured a stable market and fair prices for rice. The SIB enhanced profitability by providing higher prices for paddy, making rice cultivation more profitable. Despite many challenges in implementing interventions, governmental measures have had a significant positive impact on sustaining rice cultivation. The major recommendations derived from this research include improving water management through efficient and timely water supply via canal irrigation systems in Palakkad and Thrissur, constructing strong bunds in Alappuzha, strengthening the implementation of the Kerala Conservation of Paddy Land and Wetland Act (KCPWA) by enhancing the functioning of the Local Level Monitoring Committee and frequent updation of the rice data bank and strengthening Padasekharam activities, including training on modern agricultural technologies and facilitating access to shared machinery hubs. Furthermore, improvements in procurement systems, ensuring timely cash disbursal, and making good quality paddy seeds available are essential for farmers' economic stability. Reclamation of fallow lands and promotion of climate-resilient varieties would contribute to increased rice production.