Impact of climate change and adaptation strategies in banana production in Thiruvananthapuram district

Abstract

The research entitled “Impact of climate change and adaptation strategies in banana production in Thiruvananthapuram district” was conducted. The objective of the study was to quantify the impact of climate change on yield of banana, identification and analysis of the adaptation practices practised by farmers. Secondary data regarding area production, productivity and climatic variables were collected for Thiruvananthapuram district for the period 1991-2021 from Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Vikas Bhavan, Thiruvananthapuram and NASA power website and primary data were confined to Thiruvananthapuram district for the agricultural year 2021-2022. Multiple linear regression model was done to identify the climatic variables that are influencing the production, binary logistic regression was fitted to understand the socioeconomic variables influencing adoption of adaptation practices, CACP cost concepts were used to calculate the annual cost of banana farmers and compound annual growth rate was calculated for the area, production, productivity and climatic parameters given to know the growth trend. A positive growth of area (5.35 % per annum) and production (2.86 % per annum) were observed spite of having negative trend in productivity (-2.36 % per annum). Coefficient of variation was high in area as compared to production and productivity of banana in Thiruvananthapuram and coefficient of variation for area, production and productivity were 42.68, 32.62 and 32.71 per cent, respectively. Coefficient of variation was highest for rainfall among all weather parameters i.e., 19.52 per cent. All weather parameters have positive growth rate except wind speed (-0.24 % per annum at 1 % level of significance). Positive trend of minimum temperature was 0.13 per cent per annum and was significant at 5 per cent level of significance. On doing multiple linear regression analysis, Q4 (October to December) the coefficient for temperature was positively significant at 1 per cent level of significance. This means that increased temperature during this period resulted in increased production of banana in the district. Also Q4 (October to December) rainfall was positively significant at 5 per cent level of significance. This means that one per cent increase in temperature during Q4 will increase the production by 13.9 per cent and one per cent increase in rainfall during Q4 will increase the production of banana by 0.42 per cent due to optimum temperature and rainfall. Q4 is the important growth stage in banana for those who planted in Q2 (April- June), Q4 coincided with flowering, pollination and fruit formation. The analysis revealed that growing mixed short duration cropping (vegetables) was the major adaptation practice followed by crop insurance which was practised by 71 per cent and 65 per cent of the total respondents, respectively. The major impact perceived was decrease in yield which was reported by 100 per cent of both adopters and non adopters. Also, cost of propping was the adaptation practice which costed them ₹ 17,722 ha-1 compared to other adaptation practices followed by adopters. In the case of non adopters cost of propping was the major cost which was ₹8,951 ha-1 as compared to other adaptation practices followed. Binary logistic regression analysis was done to identify the socioeconomic variables influencing adaptation practices followed by adopters. It was found that, area and income were found positively significant at 1 per cent level of significance. Odds ratio for area and income were 1.04 and 1.99. From the socio economic status of respondents, at the aggregate level about 38 per cent of respondents had 0.2 to 0.4 ha of area under banana. This means, the farmers who were having more area under banana farming and more income are likely to adopt the adaptation practices one times more than the farmers who are having less area and income. Calculated partial elasticity showed that for one per cent increase in area under banana farming increases the probability of adopting adaptation practices by 0.99 per cent. Annual cost of cultivation was calculated using CACP cost concepts. The magnitude of Cost C incurred by adopters (₹ 3,74,844 ha-1) was 12.27 per cent higher than non adopters (₹ 3,33,862.31 ha-1). Net returns at Cost C for adopters was ₹ 4,27,932 ha-1 and for non adopters was ₹ 1,96,634 ha-1. Benefit cost ratio at Cost C for adopters was 2.14 which was more than that of non adopters who had 1.59. The yield recorded by adopters (16,056 kg ha-1) was 42.25 per cent higher than that of non adopters (11,287 kg ha-1). Gross returns in case of adopters was ₹ 8,02,775 ha-1, which was 51.32 per cent higher than the non adopters (₹ 5,30,497 ha-1). Q4 (October to December) temperature and rainfall had positive impact on banana production. Increase in area and income under banana farming increases the probability of adopting adaptation practices. Net returns of adopters were more than that of non adopters. Increase in labour cost, fluctuation in market prices and high cost of adaptation practices were major problems faced by both farmers. Coefficient of variation was highest for rainfall among all weather parameters. All weather parameters have positive growth rate except wind speed. Hence adaptation measures are propping, crop insurance and intercropping with short duration crops helps to reduce the risk of flooding