Effect of CH4 and CO2 emissions on monsoon rainfall variability and surface air temperature using CMIP6 simulations over India

Abstract

This study examines the profound impact that greenhouse gases mainly methane and carbon dioxide can have on India's climate system, especially on surface air temperatures and monsoon rainfall. Using the MRI-ESM2.0 model from CMIP6 from 1900 to 2014 An accurate and scientific examination of the up-to-date data reveals remarkable trends and correlations between these. From 1900 to 2014, methane concentrations doubled and carbon dioxide concentrations rose, showing a clear relationship with surface air temperatures and monsoon rainfall. Through a study of data taken from five different SSP conditions over the period 2024 to 2100, this study examines the possible future change in methane and carbon dioxide, and the possible change in surface air temperature and monsoon rainfall due to these, and the correlation between this. By incorporating Taylor diagrams and skill scores, this research selects the MRI-ESM2.0 model, thereby yielding valuable insights into India's climate dynamics and then scatter plots were drawn to check the authenticity of the data. This study enriches our comprehensive understanding of greenhouse gas-induced climate change in India, providing valuable insight into shaping climate policies, strengthening revival strategies, and advancing sustainable development efforts in an ever-evolving global context. Keywords: Greenhouse gases, Climate change, India, Methane, Carbon dioxide, Surface Air Temperature, Monsoon Rainfall, MRI-ESM2.0, CMIP6, Taylor diagram, Skill score, Surface air temperature, Monsoon rainfall, Emissions, Anthropogenic, Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP).