Modelling habitat suitability and climate change impacts on Malabar Pied- Hornbill (Anthracoceros coronatus) of WG, India

Abstract

Climate change has become a pressing issue in the WG region, which is renowned as one of the most prominent biodiversity hotspots in the world. Due to significant changes in climatic conditions, there is a growing consensus that species are undergoing more rapid shifts and declines in their habitats than they did in the past (Dobrowski et al., 2013). The Malabar Pied-Hornbill (Anthracoceros coronatus) is a notable bird species found in the Western Ghats region of India. The present study aims to determine the patterns of species distributions shown by this particular species in the changing climate scenarios. Monthly Climate model data downscaled from CMIP6 for the future and present were downloaded from WorldClim (Hijmans et al., 2005). The projections were developed under different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) like SSP 1-2.6, SSP 3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5 (IPCC AR6, 2022) for the period of 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100 at a resolution of 30 arc seconds. The Habitat Suitability Modelling (HSM) for this species was done using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm. The MaxEnt model settings were obtained with the help of ENM evaluate tool in R and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) was used to find the best performing model. Multicollinearity test was done to eliminate highly correlated variables and the model was built based on those variables. BIO 14 (Precipitation of the driest month) and BIO 9 (Mean temperature of highest quarter) was found out to be the most important variable for the model building of MPH. An area of 71,816.09 Km2 was predicted as suitable area for the species which is 8.78% of the background area. Only 8.34% of the suitable area fall under the protected area network. Under the future climate change scenarios, the species is predicted to have a net loss of the suitable habitat. Under SSP 1-2.6 climate change scenario, there is an expected loss of 45.88% of the total suitable habitat for the species. But under SSP 3-7.0 climate change scenario, the expected loss is 61.35% of the total suitable habitat. Meanwhile there is expected to be a net loss of 63.99% of the total suitable habitat for the species under the climate change scenario of SSP 5-8.5. To ensure the long term conservation strategy in favor of the selected species, realignment of the protected area network in the WG is recommended. Reduction of greenhouse gas emission and restoration of the degraded habitats are recommended as solutions for the adverse impact of climate change.