Documentation and validation of biotic and abiotic Indicators used by farmers for weather prediction in Wayand district, Kerala

Abstract

Indigenous Technical Knowledge (ITK) is an integral part of the culture and history of a local community. It is evolved through many years of regular experimentation on the day to day life and resources available in the community. Biotic and abiotic indicators used by farmers for weather prediction are the parts of the ITK. Twenty abiotic indicators and thirty-five biotic indicators were documented in this study. The documented indicators were validated through farmer participatory process using Use Validity Score (UVS) and through published research findings. Based on UVS, four abiotic and eight biotic indicators could be grouped under high UVS category (>2.80 and > 2.56 respectively). The abiotic indicators with high UVS were mostly based on general observations of common natural features. As the difficulty of observation increased in terms of requirement of specific details, the popularity of indicators showed a decreasing trend towards medium to low levels. Abiotic indicators with high UVS in the order of ranks were clear blue sky related to no rainfall (3.33 UVS) followed by thunder and lightning with UVS 3.15 and dark rolling clouds along with cool breeze (2.94), both related to imminent rainfall. Among biotic indicators, all the three top ranked indicators were used for the prediction of rains and were associated with swarming of winged termites in the evening, frogs croaking near swampy areas in groups and grey wagtail flying down to the earth in groups with UVS 3.03, 3.00 and 2.92 respectively. Thematic content analysis based on published theories and related research validated eight abiotic and four biotic indicators scientifically. Most important inference from the study was that, people still relied on ITKs for weather prediction and were depended on simple observations related to common natural features. Moreover, the farmers’ access to formal meteorological forecasts was limited to mass media sources. Customized crop-based weather forecast that promotes integrated use of popular ITKs, can improve the efficiency and reliability of the weather forecast among farmers.