Modelling habitat suitability and climate change impacts on Nilgiri wood -pigeon(Columba elphinstonii)

Abstract

Worldwide distributions of species are predicted to vary as a result of climate change, endangering their survival through reduced ranges and changing their presence in protected areas. Since many species in biodiversity hotspots have limited ranges that may become more restricted as species move toward their ideal environment, these areas may be more sensitive to the effects of climate change. This study assesses the possibility that range-restricted and endangered birds in the Southern Western Ghats might experience changes in their distribution as a result of climate change. The Species Distribution Modelling is done by using the software MaxEnt, to evaluate how the climate change influence the distribution of the selected species. To determine the settings for the model, ENM evaluate tool was used. The best-performing model was selected based on True Skill Statistics (TSS) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value. A bird species, Nilgiri Wood-Pigeon (Columba elphinstonii) seen in the Western Ghats which found to be declining its population by IUCN is selected for this study. Different environmental variables are integrated to generate the models for this species. Bio6 (Minimum temperature of the coldest month) indicates the lowest temperature of the coldest month and Bio18 (Precipitation of the Warmest quarter) are identified as the most influencing variable for Nilgiri Wood-Pigeon. The current suitable habitat available for the NWP throughout the southern Western Ghats is evaluated to be 12,704 km2. About 33% of the current suitable habitat of the NWP comes under the Protected Areas network of the southern Western Ghats. The models also predicted the loss of habitat in future under various climate change scenarios. It is estimated that the NWP loses its habitat about 21% to 39% in future under different SSP scenarios, such as SSP 1.26, SSP 3.70 and SSP 5.85 till the year 2050. The representativeness of protected areas may be maintained with the addition of new areas, but in order to determine if active management techniques to mitigate the impacts of climate change the methods required are; monitoring of species predicted, the conservation of appropriate habitat of this bird, elevate their conservation status, and work together to educate the public about the need to reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases.