Emergence of Kerala coast as disaster hotspot-implications for management

Abstract

Coastal areas hold ecological, economic as well as strategic functions that directly or indirectly benefit a nation. Their geographic location along with high population pressure and industrial developments make them prone to disasters. With the current scale of climate change, weather related extreme events are going to be more frequent and intense. Evidence based research is carried out to analyze the frequency of hazardous events in the Kerala coast for last decade to identify the hotspot zones. The result found that a remarkable increase in the hazards was found in the central zone and further disaster risk was carried out here. A multi risk approach is adopted to identify hotspot areas using a combination of indicators and indices. The study provides a preliminary insight into the risk experienced by the coastline along central Kerala-in Alappuzha, Ernakulam, and Thrissur. Risk assessment is adopted following the typology of risk give by IPCC AR5 where a function of hazard, vulnerability, and exposure contribute to risk. Indicators under hazard (SLR, precipitation intensity, shoreline change rate, proximity to cyclone track, storm surge height, and number of sea surge events), vulnerability (population density and LU/LC) and exposure (slope, elevation, Mean SWH, and drainage density) are integrated into GIS environment to develop a risk index at the regional level. Risk ranking is assigned to individual variables followed by mapping the composite risk that yield a visual representation of the realities. The study found that 2% of the study area is under very high risk, 6% of it under high risk area, 21% falls into medium risk, 43% of it under low risk, and 28% under very low risk.

Coastal areas require a different yet comprehensive approach for their sustenance and utilization. Thus, for the sustainable use or resources, management implications include retreat, accommodate, and protection measures. The outcome is expected to be a valuable tool aiming at disaster risk reduction and community development within the context of integrated coastal zone management.