Modelling and prediction of the impact of climate change on blue carbon ecosystem services provided by tropical mangroves , east coast of India

Abstract

Mangrove deforestation by land use conversions is the greatest threat to the conservation of coastal ecosystem. Here, the aim of this study is to predict the changes in mangrove regulatory services in Bapatla district Andhra Pradesh. Also estimate the carbon stock of planted and natural mangroves in the study area. Core of this study is Modelling and evaluation of spatial-temporal changes in blue carbon stocks and net sequestration potential in mangrove forests in Bapatla Landscape Andhra Pradesh, from 1993 to 2050. InVEST Coastal Blue Carbon model, which quantifies the potential carbon sequesteredin the study area based on changes in the land use and land cover. Also estimate the economic value of coastal blue carbon in Bapatla mangroves by analysing the changes in carbon storage that have taken place over 57 years. Field studies reveals that carbonstock in soil and biomass were high in natural mangroves as compared to planted mangroves. There is an increased trend in carbon stocks and net sequestration of mangroves. Over all net carbon sequestration was approximately 1.42 Mt C over a period from 1993 to 2050. The future projection by InVEST model reveals that there was a net increase on the carbon sequestration (0.83 Mt C from 2022) as a business-as- usual scenario. The monetary value of CBCS was subject to gains of between US$ 300000 and 1550000 per year, and losses of between US$ 40000 and 206666 per year, according to recent estimates by social cost of carbon (SCC). In spite of loss of mangrove vegetation over Krishna delta due to coastal erosion, deforestation, decline and aquaculture encroachments, several mangrove- restoration projects taken up during 1991–2008 led to an overall increase in its area. This study only considers about the regulatory services provided by mangroves. This finding can support the development of public policies for mangrove conservationand restoration actions to mitigate climate impact. Key words : Coastal blue carbon, Land use/Land cover, Mangrove, InVEST model